• Viborg Madsen posted an update a month ago

    In this paper, we take up the timely topic of the modeling, analysis, and solution of refugee migration networks. We construct a general, multiclass, multipath model, determine the governing equilibrium conditions, and provide alternative variational inequality formulations in path flows and in link flows. We also demonstrate how governmental imposed regulations associated with refugees can be captured via constraints. We provide qualitative properties and then establish, via a supernetwork transformation, that the model(s) are isomorphic to traffic network equilibrium models with fixed demands. Illustrative examples are given, along with numerical examples, inspired by a refugee crisis from Mexico to the United States, which are solved using the Euler method embedded with exact equilibration. The work sets the foundation for the development of additional models and algorithms and also provides insights as to who wins and who loses under certain refugee regulations.During the COVID-19 crisis there have been many difficult decisions governments and other decision makers had to make. E.g. do we go for a total lock down or keep schools open? How many people and which people should be tested? Although there are many good models from e.g. epidemiologists on the spread of the virus under certain conditions, these models do not directly translate into the interventions that can be taken by government. Neither can these models contribute to understand the economic and/or social consequences of the interventions. However, effective and sustainable solutions need to take into account this combination of factors. In this paper, we propose an agent-based social simulation tool, ASSOCC, that supports decision makers understand possible consequences of policy interventions, but exploring the combined social, health and economic consequences of these interventions.We study how moral suasion that appeals to two major ethical theories, Consequentialism and Deontology, affects individual intentions to contribute to a public good. We use the COVID-19 pandemic as an exemplary case where there is a large gap between private and social costs and where moral suasion has been widely used as a policy instrument. Based on a survey experiment with a representative sample of around 3500 Germans at the beginning of the pandemic, we study how moral appeals affect contributions with low and high opportunity costs, hand washing and social distancing, to reduce the infection externality as well as the support for governmental regulation. We find that Deontological moral suasion, appealing to individual moral duty, is effective in increasing planned social distancing and hand-washing, while a Consequentialist appeal only increases planned hand-washing. Both appeals increase support for governmental regulation. Exploring heterogeneous treatment effects reveals that younger respondents are more susceptible to Deontological appeals. Our results highlight the potential of moral appeals to induce intended private contributions to a public good or the reduction of externalities, which can help to overcome collective action problems for a range of environmental issues.Corporate social responsibility (CSR) activities, being viewed as the corporate’s provision of a public good, enable tax exemptions in many economies. We examine, in a monopoly setup with heterogeneous consumers, with social image concerns, whether these tax exemptions are justified. When private and public investments are substitutes, tax exemptions ought to be accorded to CSR activities, and an ad valorem subsidy is welfare superior to a specific one, only when both consumers’ social consciousness and reputational concerns are sufficiently low and/or when the marginal cost on the private good market is sufficiently high. Otherwise, a positive ad valorem tax is welfare improving as it redistributes surplus from the firm to consumers while increasing total welfare in the process. However, when the firm’s CSR investment complements the government’s provision, tax exemptions appear to be suboptimal relative to a positive tax. Specifically, the relative appeal of specific taxes, compared to ad valorem taxes, increases in consumers’ reputational concerns and the value of the optimal tax decreases in their level of altruism.Assuming that there is no other solution than herd immunity in front of the current pandemic, on which groups of citizens should we build this herd immunity? Given the fact that young people face a mortality rate which is at least a thousand times smaller than people aged 70 years and more, there is a simple rational to build it on these younger generations. buy SBE-β-CD The transfer of some mortality risk from the elderly to younger people raises difficult ethical issues. However, none of the familiar moral or operational guidelines (equality of rights, VSL, QALY, …) that have been used in the Western world over the last century weights the value of young lives 1000 times or more than the lives of the elders. This suggests that Society could offer covid protection to the elders by recommending them to remain confined as long as this herd immunity has not been attained by the younger generations. This would be a potent demonstration of intergenerational solidarity towards the most vulnerable people in our community. The welfare gain of this age-specific deconfinement strategy is huge, as it can reduce the global death toll by more than 80% as compared to a strategy of non-targeted herd immunity.We quantify the impact of the Wuhan Covid-19 lockdown on concentrations of four air pollutants using a two-step approach. First, we use machine learning to remove the confounding effects of weather conditions on pollution concentrations. Second, we use a new augmented synthetic control method (Ben-Michael et al. in The augmented synthetic control method. University of California Berkeley, Mimeo, 2019. https//arxiv.org/pdf/1811.04170.pdf) to estimate the impact of the lockdown on weather normalised pollution relative to a control group of cities that were not in lockdown. We find NO 2 concentrations fell by as much as 24 μ g/m 3 during the lockdown (a reduction of 63% from the pre-lockdown level), while PM10 concentrations fell by a similar amount but for a shorter period. The lockdown had no discernible impact on concentrations of SO 2 or CO. We calculate that the reduction of NO 2 concentrations could have prevented as many as 496 deaths in Wuhan city, 3368 deaths in Hubei province and 10,822 deaths in China as a whole.

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